原外交部副部长傅莹《中国如何看俄罗斯》中英全文对照
中国如何看俄罗斯
How China Sees Russia
——北京和莫斯科关系密切，但不是盟友
– Beijing and Moscow Are Close, but Not Allies
傅莹
Fu Ying
在俄罗斯与美欧关系日趋冷淡之际，中俄之间相对亲热的关系再次引起关注。西方学者和媒体记者对中俄伙伴关系的性质展开了讨论，探寻这种伙伴关系是否会走向结盟。
At a time when Russian relations with the United States and western European countries are growing cold, the relatively warm ties between China and Russia have attracted renewed interest. Scholars and journalists in the West find themselves debating the nature of the Chinese-Russian partnership and wondering whether it will evolve into an alliance.
冷战结束后，西方关于中俄关系的评估及其走势的猜测通常有两大种观点。一种认为中俄关系脆弱，不可预料，充斥不确定因素——许多支持这种观点的人称之为基于利害关系的“权宜婚姻”，认为两国不太可能越走越近，反而很可能渐行渐远。而另一种观点认为，战略甚至意识形态的考量构成中俄关系的基础，预言两国——都视美国为实现自身意图可能的阻碍——未来必然会结成反美、反西方联盟。
Since the end of the Cold War, two main views have tended to define Western assessments of the Chinese-Russian relationship and predictions of its future. The first view holds that the link between Beijing and Moscow is vulnerable, contingent, and marked by uncertainties – a “marriage of convenience,” to use the phrase favored by many advocates of this argument, who see it as unlikely that the two countries will grow much closer and quite possible that they will begin to drift apart. The other view posits that strategic and even ideological factors form the basis of Chinese-Russian ties and predicts that the two countries – both of which see the United States as a possible obstacle to their objectives – will eventually form an anti-U.S., anti-Western alliance.
这两种观点都没有准确地反映中俄关系的实质。中俄关系是稳定的战略伙伴关系，并非所谓的“权宜婚姻”：其内容丰富、基础牢固。冷战后的国际关系演变进一步拉近了两国的关系。一些西方分析家和政府官员推测（可能有人甚至希望）俄罗斯深度介入当前叙利亚和乌克兰的冲突，将导致北京和莫斯科关系紧张——甚至破裂。事实上，这样的状况并没有发生。
Neither view accurately captures the true nature of the relationship. The Chinese-Russian relationship is a stable strategic partnership and by no means a marriage of convenience: it is complex, sturdy, and deeply rooted. Changes in international relations since the end of the Cold War have only brought the two countries closer together. Some Western analysts and officials have speculated (and perhaps even hoped) that the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, in which Russia has become heavily involved, would lead to tensions between Beijing and Moscow – or even a rupture. But that has not happened.
不过，中国无意与俄罗斯正式结盟，也不会结成任何形式的反美、反西方联盟。相反，北京希望稳定中俄关系，为这两大邻国实现国家发展目标提供安全的环境，通过互利互惠的合作彼此提供支持，从而为大国处理分歧和开展合作提供范例，这有利于巩固国际体系。
Nevertheless, China has no interest in a formal alliance with Russia, nor in forming an anti-U.S. or anti-Western bloc of any kind. Rather, Beijing hopes that China and Russia can maintain their relationship in a way that will provide a safe environment for the two big neighbors to achieve their development goals and to support each other through mutually beneficial cooperation, offering a model for how major countries can manage their differences and cooperate in ways that strengthen the international system.
关系牢固
Ties That Bind
中国同沙俄及此后的苏联在19世纪末到20世纪中叶有过数次结盟。但是每次都很短暂，因为结盟只是两个实力失衡的国家间的权宜之计。在之后的几十年，这两个强大的共产党领导的国家关系马马虎虎，虽然也有合作，但更多的是陷入对抗和猜疑。1989年，在苏联政权的末期，两国关系终于恢复正常。双方共同宣布，“要在互相尊重主权和领土完整、互不侵犯、互不干涉内政、平等互利、和平共处”的基础上发展双边关系。两年后，苏联解体，但中俄关系继承了“不结盟、不对抗，不针对第三国”的原则。
On several occasions between the end of the nineteenth century and the middle of the twentieth century, China entered into an alliance with the Russian empire and its successor, the Soviet Union. But every time, the arrangement proved short-lived, as each amounted to nothing more than an expediency between countries of unequal strength. In the decades that followed, the two powerful communist-led countries muddled through, occasionally cooperating but often riven by rivalry and mistrust. In 1989, in the waning years of Soviet rule, they finally restored normalcy to their relations. They jointly declared that they would develop bilateral relations based on “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual nonaggression, noninterference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.” Two years later, the Soviet Union disintegrated, but Chinese-Russian relations carried on with the principle of “no alliance, no conflict, and no targeting any third country.”
此后不久，新生的俄罗斯联邦奉行所谓的“大西洋主义”。为了赢得西方信任和援助，俄罗斯不仅经济改革走西方路线，而且在削减战略核武器等诸多重要安全问题上也作出让步。但俄罗斯的愿望并没有实现，反而出现经济萎缩，区域影响力下降。俄罗斯对美欧援助口惠而实不至感到失望，对北约东扩意图十分不满，1992年开始重视亚洲。同年，中俄宣布相互视为“友好国家”并发表联合政治声明，强调“各国人民自由选择其国内发展道路的权利应得到尊重，社会制度和意识形态的差异不应妨碍国家关系的正常发展”。
Soon thereafter, the newborn Russian Federation embraced the so-called Atlanticist approach. To win the trust and help of the West, Russia not only followed Western prescriptions for economic reform but also made concessions on major security issues, including reducing its stockpile of strategic nuclear weapons. However, things didn’t turn out the way the Russians had hoped, as the country’s economy tanked and its regional influence waned. In 1992, disappointed with what they saw as unfulfilled pledges of American and European assistance and irritated by talk of NATO’s eastward expansion, the Russians began to pay more attention to Asia. That year, China and Russia announced that each would regard the other as a “friendly country” and issued a joint political statement stipulating that “the freedom of people to choose their own development paths should be respected, while differences in social systems and ideologies should not hamper the normal progress of relations.”
自此开始，中俄关系逐步改善和深入。在过去的20多年来，双边贸易和投资大幅增长。2011年，中国成为俄罗斯最大贸易伙伴国。仅2014年一年，中国对俄投资增幅就高达80%——而这一增长势头依然保持强劲。上世纪九十年代早期，中俄贸易额每年尚不足50亿美元，而2014年这一数字已接近1000亿美元，足以彰显两国经贸关系的成长。2014年，北京和莫斯科签署里程碑式的天然气管道协议，俄将从2018年起向中国供气，每年最大输气量将达380亿立方米。此外，双方还计划在核电、航空制造、高铁、基础设施建设等领域做一些大事，并且在亚洲基础设施投资银行、金砖国家开发银行、金砖国家外汇储备库等新的多边金融平台开展合作。
Ever since, Chinese-Russian relations have gradually improved and deepened. During the past 20 years or so, bilateral trade and investment have expanded on a massive scale. In 2011, China became Russia’s largest trading partner. In 2014 alone, China’s investment in Russia grew by 80 percent – and the trend toward more investment remains strong. To get a sense of the growth in economic ties, consider that in the early 1990s, annual bilateral trade between China and Russia amounted to around $5 billion; by 2014, it came close to $100 billion. That year, Beijing and Moscow signed a landmark agreement to construct a pipeline that, by 2018, will bring as much as 38 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas to China every year. The two countries are also planning significant deals involving nuclear power generation, aerospace manufacturing, high-speed rail, and infrastructure development. Furthermore, they are cooperating on new multinational financial institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New Development Bank BRICS, and the BRICS foreign exchange reserve pool.
同时，中俄两国安全关系也在增强。中国已经成为俄罗斯最大武器进口国，两国正在探讨开展一系列武器联合研制项目。中俄开展的广泛的防务合作有高级别军事人员磋商和联演联训，包括双方过去10多年间在双边及上海合作组织框架下举行的20余次联合反恐军演。20年间，已有数千名中国军人赴俄留学，而俄罗斯很多军官也到中国国防大学短期进修。
Meanwhile, security ties have improved as well. China has become one of the largest importers of Russian arms, and the two countries are discussing a number of joint arms research-and-development projects. Extensive Chinese-Russian defense cooperation involves consultations between high-level military personnel and joint training and exercises, including more than a dozen joint counterterrorism exercises during the past decade or so, carried out either bilaterally or under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In the past 20 years, thousands of Chinese military personnel have studied in Russia, and many Russian military officials have received short-term training at the National Defense University of China.
伴随着经济、军事关系的加强，中俄政治关系也在不断加深。2008年，两国和平解决了困扰多年的领土争议，划定2600多英里（合4300多公里）的边界线，从而消除了两国关系的最大隐患——这在邻近的大国之间十分难得。目前两国在国家元首、总理、议长、外长等各层级都有年度定期会晤的安排。自2013年就任中国国家主席以来，习近平已五次赴俄，俄罗斯总统普京也三次来华。两人总共已经会晤了12次，普京成为习近平就任国家主席以来见面最多的外国元首。
As economic and military links have strengthened, so, too, have political ones. In 2008, China and Russia were able to peacefully resolve territorial disputes that had troubled relations for decades, formally demarcating their 2,600-mile-plus border and thus eliminating their single largest source of tension – a rare achievement for big neighbors. In recent years, the two countries have held regular annual meetings between their heads of states, prime ministers, top legislators, and foreign ministers. Since 2013, when Xi Jinping became president of China, he has paid five visits to Russia, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has traveled three times to China in the same time period. All told, Xi and Putin have met 12 times, making Putin the foreign head of state whom Xi has met most frequently since assuming the presidency.
管控分歧
Managing Differences
尽管取得了长足进展，但中俄两个邻国间依然存在分歧，外交政策的关注点也各有侧重。俄罗斯传统上面向欧洲，而中国则更多聚焦亚洲。两国外交行事风格也不同，俄罗斯在全球舞台上经验更加丰富，外交上往往强势，主动，常出人意料。而中国外交则应对性多一些，更小心谨慎。
For all this progress, differences still exist between the two neighbors, and they don’t always share the same focus when it comes to foreign policy. Russia is traditionally oriented toward Europe, whereas China is more concerned with Asia. The two countries’ diplomatic styles differ as well. Russia is more experienced on the global theater, and it tends to favor strong, active, and often surprising diplomatic maneuvers. Chinese diplomacy, in contrast, is more reactive and cautious.
中国的崛起引发了一些俄罗斯人的不安，有些俄罗斯人对中俄力量对比的变化感到不适应。旧有的“中国威胁论”在俄罗斯仍有一定市场。俄罗斯舆论基金会于2008年进行的一项民意调查显示，约60%的俄罗斯人担心日益增多的中国远东移民会对俄领土主权产生威胁，41%的受访者认为中国的强大将损害俄罗斯的利益。随着中国不断寻求新的对外投资贸易机会，同前苏联国家合作不断深化，俄罗斯人担心中国在其周边争夺影响力。这在一定程度上导致了俄罗斯一度对北京的丝绸之路经济带倡议显示出犹豫。不过，俄罗斯最终于2014年表示对该倡议的支持。另外，仍然有中国人因历史上的一些问题对俄罗斯存有不满。尽管双方已和平解决领土争议，沙俄于19世纪末抢占中国大约一百五十万平方公里土地的问题在中国评论界仍常有议论。
China’s rise has produced discomfort among some in Russia, where some people have had difficulty adjusting to the shift in relative power between China and Russia. There is still talk in Russia of “the China threat,” a holdover expression from past eras. A poll conducted in 2008 by Russia’s Public Opinion Foundation showed that around 60 percent of Russians were concerned that Chinese migration to Far Eastern border areas would threaten Russia’s territorial integrity; 41 percent believed that a stronger China would harm Russian interests. And as China’s quest for new investment and trade opportunities abroad has led to increased Chinese cooperation with former Soviet states, Russians have worried that China is competing for influence in their neighborhood. Partly as a result, Moscow initially hesitated to support Beijing’s Silk Road Economic Belt initiative before ultimately embracing it in 2014. Meanwhile, some Chinese continue to nurse historical grievances regarding Russia. Despite the resolution of the border issue, Chinese commentators sometimes make critical references to the nearly 600,000 square miles of Chinese territory that tsarist Russia annexed in the late nineteenth century.
然而，以上分歧都不足以支持西方关于中俄关系会渐行渐远的猜测。过去两年，俄罗斯和美国、欧盟的关系由于乌克兰和叙利亚危机每况愈下，关于中俄关系会恶化的评论在西方不时出现。但是，尽管有分歧，中俄对坚定发展两国关系的政策考量是一致的。为双方各自的安全和发展所需，双方必须合作。两国携手既有利于国际政治的平衡，也可推动一些国际问题的解决。双方既有共识，也有分歧，但双方能承认和有效管控分歧，同时不断扩大共识。正如中国外长王毅所言，中俄关系是一条对外交往的新路，可以为其他国家提供一种可以效仿的模式。
However, these differences hardly support speculation in the West that Beijing and Moscow are drifting apart. This theory has occasionally appeared in Western commentary in the past two years, as Russia’s relations with the United States and the EU have deteriorated owing to the crises in Syria and Ukraine. Despite some differences, however, China and Russia share a desire to firmly develop their bilateral relations and understand that they must join hands to achieve national security and development. Their cooperation is conducive to balance in the international system and can facilitate the solution of some international problems. Sometimes they agree; sometimes they do not. But they are able to acknowledge and manage their disagreements while continuing to expand areas of consensus. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has noted, the Chinese-Russian relationship offers a new approach for conducting external relations and represents a possible model for other states to follow.
对乌克兰和叙利亚危机的应对，反映了中俄如何有效地维护双边伙伴关系。美国很多人认为中国对乌克兰问题态度不明朗，或怀疑中国倒向了俄罗斯一边。事实上，2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后，中国外交部发言人明确表示，应该尊重乌克兰独立、主权和领土完整。中方强调的是，相关所有各方应通过对话解决分歧，设立协调机制，不采取恶化局势的行动，并协助乌克兰维护经济和金融稳定。中国并未倒向任何一边：在国际问题方面，北京从来恪守公正、公平和客观的原则。
The crises in Syria and Ukraine illuminate the ways in which China and Russia have effectively managed their partnership. Many in the United States see China’s attitude toward the conflict in Ukraine as unclear or suspect that China has sided with Russia. In fact, after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated unequivocally that Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity should be respected. China emphasized that all the parties involved in the Ukrainian conflict should resolve their differences through dialogue, establish coordinating mechanisms, refrain from activities that could worsen the situation, and assist Ukraine in maintaining its economic and financial stability. China did not take any side: fairness and objectivity serve as guiding principles for Beijing when addressing international affairs.
但是，中国外交人士和领导人也对导致危机的根源更加关注，包括后苏联国家屡次上演的西方支持的“颜色革命”和北约东扩对俄罗斯产生的压力等。还有一层因素不能忽略，这就是俄与那些前苏联共和国之间存在的复杂的历史、民族、宗教及领土纠葛。乌克兰危机是所有这些因素叠加的结果。正如习近平主席所说，乌克兰危机，“不是凭空产生的”。
But Chinese diplomats and leaders are also mindful of what led to the crisis, including the series of Western-supported “color revolutions” in post-Soviet states and the pressure on Russia that resulted from NATO’s eastward expansion. It is also worth noting that there have long been complicated historical, ethnic, religious, and territorial issues between Russia and the former Soviet republics. The Ukraine crisis is a result of all these factors. As Xi put it, the crisis is “not coming from nowhere.”
在叙利亚问题上，北京认为，俄罗斯应叙利亚政府请求进行军事干涉，目的是打击恐怖主义和极端主义分子。尽管华盛顿呼吁叙利亚总统阿萨德下台，但它与俄打击“伊斯兰国”组织的目标是相同的。因此，美国一方面谴责俄罗斯干涉，另一方面又表示愿意与俄罗斯共同打击恐怖主义。俄罗斯的行动虽不完全是美国希望看到的，但对美国利益来讲并不完全是坏事。从中国的角度看，俄罗斯和美国在打击“伊斯兰国”这样凶残的恐怖主义方面是有共同利益的。中国希望，俄罗斯、美国、伊朗和其他本地区相关国家的会谈将在解决该问题方面取得进展。
On Syria, the view in Beijing is that Russia launched its military intervention at the request of the Syrian government in order to combat terrorist and extremist forces. Although Washington has called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, it shares Russia’s goal of taking on the Islamic State (also known as ISIS). So on the one hand, the United States has criticized the Russian intervention, but on the other hand, it has expressed willingness to work with Russia on counterterrorism. The Russian move, then, was not exactly what the United States wanted to see but was not an entirely bad thing for U.S. interests, either. From China’s perspective, Russia and the United States share an interest in confronting the brutal terrorists of ISIS. The hope in China is that talks among Russia, the United States, Iran, and a number of other regional powers will make progress in resolving the conflict.
但是，很难说俄美在叙利亚方面的合作前景如何，因为双方对如何达成和平与秩序并无共识。许多中国人感到困惑的是，美俄观念受冷战影响依然很严重。美国政客和媒体谈俄罗斯，总像在讲那个失败的冷战对手。而在俄罗斯也常能听到对美国傲慢和帝国主义的抨击。双方都有分析人士认为，莫斯科和华盛顿之间在乌克兰和叙利亚问题上的对抗可能导致新的冷战。但在中国看来，这场对抗更像是冷战终结的漫长过程。不知道这次双方是否能够抓住机会，彻底结束宿仇旧恨。
But it is difficult to know how far U.S.-Russian cooperation in Syria can go without a common understanding about what will lead to peace and order. And many in China find it perplexing that U.S. and Russian perceptions are still so heavily influenced by the Cold War. U.S. politicians and commentators tend to talk about Russia as if it were still the failed Cold War rival. Meanwhile, Russian officials and observers frequently criticize Washington’s behavior as arrogant or imperial. Some analysts on both sides have suggested that the standoff between Moscow and Washington over Syria and Ukraine could lead to a new Cold War. But from China’s point of view, the current confrontations seem more like a prolonged ending of the original Cold War. It remains unclear if Moscow and Washington will take this opportunity to finally put old enmities to rest.
摆脱零和博弈
Getting Past Zero-Sum
鉴于中、俄、美三国之间的关系互相关联，研究中俄关系也需要关注到中美关系的状况。与中俄关系相比，北京和华盛顿之间的关系更加广泛但也更为复杂。中美经济总量占到全球三分之一。2014年，双边贸易额接近6000多亿美元，双向投资存量超过1200亿美元。37年前，当中美刚刚建交之际，没人预料两国会发展成如此强有力的伙伴关系。
Given the way that relations among China, Russia, and the United States are intertwined, no analysis of Chinese-Russian ties would be complete without a consideration of where things stand between China and the United States. Compared with the Chinese-Russian relationship, the one between Beijing and Washington is wider and more complicated. Combined, China and the United States account for one-third of global GDP. In 2014, U.S.-Chinese trade reached nearly $600 billion, and accumulated mutual investment exceeded $120 billion. Thirty-seven years ago, when the People’s Republic of China established diplomatic relations with the United States, no one expected such a strong partnership to emerge.
但不可否认，中美关系也存在结构性的矛盾。两国的政治理念和制度有巨大的不同。很多美国人将中国不断增长的经济实力及与之相应的更大国际影响力视为对华盛顿全球领导力的潜在威胁。中国正迅速成长为世界第二大经济体。当2003年美国派兵入侵伊拉克之际，中国的国内生产总值（GDP）大约是美国的八分之一。八年后，当美开始从伊拉克撤军之时，中国的GDP已增至美国的一半。很多报告预测，到2020年，中国的GDP将与美国接近。这些变化令华盛顿担心中美走上了对抗之路。针对中国在南中国海的斯普拉特利群岛（即我南沙群岛——本网注）一些岛礁上的扩建行为，很多美国学者和评论家认为这是“扩张主义”的体现，并就美国应如何应对展开了激烈讨论。同时，北京认为，美国派军舰接近中国的南中国海岛礁是挑衅行为，有观点认为美国的对华政策从建设性接触转向遏制。
But there is no denying the structural difficulties in the relationship. Significant differences remain between Chinese and U.S. political values and between the governing systems in the two countries. And many Americans perceive China’s growing economic strength and its correspondingly higher international influence as a potential threat to Washington’s global leadership. China has quickly grown into the world’s second-largest economy. When U.S. troops invaded Iraq in 2003, China’s GDP was roughly one-eighth that of the United States. By the time the Americans pulled out of Iraq eight years later, China’s GDP had grown to half that of the United States. According to many estimates, China’s GDP will approach the United States’ by 2020. These changes have provoked fears in Washington that China and the United States are on a collision course. Disputes over China’s construction activities in the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea, have fueled a heated debate about how the United States should respond to what some American scholars and commentators see as expansionism. Meanwhile, Beijing regards the presence of U.S. military vessels near Chinese territory in the South China Sea as an act of provocation. Some argue that U.S. policy toward China may shift from constructive engagement to containment.
在这些争论的背景下，习近平主席今年9月对美国进行了国事访问。习主席在访美期间，对美国内有关中国的发展对美国的世界领导力构成挑战的观点进行了回应。他说，“中国坚持走和平发展道路，对其他国家不构成威胁”。后来，他还表示，“人们应摈弃你输我赢、零和博弈旧观念，树立和平发展、合作共赢新理念。中国发展好了，对世界有利，对美国也有利；美国发展好了，对世界和中国也有利”。
These debates provided the backdrop for Xi’s state visit to Washington last September. In remarks during the visit, Xi directly addressed the idea that China’s development presents a challenge to the United States’ global leadership. “The path China follows is one of peaceful development, and China does not pose a threat to other countries,” Xi said. Later, he added, “People should give up the old concepts of ‘you lose, I win,’ or zero-sum game, and establish a new concept of peaceful development and win-win cooperation. If China develops well, it will benefit the whole world and benefit the United States. If the United States develops well, it will also benefit the world and China.”
中国领导人认为中国的快速发展在一定程度上得益于成功融入世界经济体系。他们认为中国是以联合国为核心的国际秩序的获益者，秉持和推崇《联合国宪章》规定的主权平等和不干涉他国内政的原则。中国认为自身在相当长时间里都需要聚焦国内经济和社会发展，因此高度重视维护一个稳定与和平的外部环境。中国在维护自身利益上的态度是明确和坚决的，对于任何挑衅和侵犯中国领土主权和权益的做法都会给予坚决的回应，目的仍是要确保和平与稳定。中国将继续致力于维护地区和国际秩序，更紧密地融入这个全球化的世界。
Chinese leaders attribute much of their country’s rapid ascent to China’s successful integration into the world economy. They see China as a beneficiary of the international order, with the UN at its core, and as a strong advocate of principles such as sovereign equality and nonintervention in the internal affairs of states, which the UN Charter enshrines. China expects that it will have to focus on its own domestic economic and social development for a long time to come and thus highly values the maintenance of a stable and peaceful external environment. Although China is determined to protect its own interests and would respond firmly to provocations, encroachments on its territorial sovereignty, or threats to its rights and interests, its main goal is still to ensure that peace and stability prevail. And China is committed to safeguarding the international order and the Asia-Pacific regional order, as well as further integrating into the globalized world.
促进中美关系是中国外交的重要组成部分。2015年9月，习近平主席对美国进行首次国事访问。之前，自2013年以来，他和美国总统奥巴马已会面5次，此外还有3次通话。2013年6月，两位领导人在加州安纳伯格庄园进行了7个多小时的长谈。之后，习主席宣布中美将构建“新型大国关系”，他将之定义为“不冲突、不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢”。两位领导人之后围绕这一主题继续对话。2014年11月，他们在北京的“瀛台夜话”持续近5个小时。在2015年9月习主席对美国的国事访问中，与奥巴马总统直接对话和共同活动时间约9个小时。两国元首长时间的会晤有助于他们增进了解，防止发生一些美国分析家们认为不可避免的冲突。
Improving U.S.-Chinese relations represents an important part of China’s diplomatic effort. Last September marked Xi’s first state visit to Washington, but he and U.S. President Barack Obama had previously met five times since 2013 and had spoken over the phone on three occasions. In June 2013, when the two leaders met at the Sunnylands summit, in California, they talked for more than seven hours. After the meeting, Xi announced that China and the United States would pursue a “new model of major-country relationship,” which he defined as a relationship based on nonconflict, nonconfrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation. The two leaders have since continued their conversations on that theme: in November 2014 in Beijing, they held the “Yingtai dialogue,” which lasted for nearly five hours. And during Xi’s state visit, he and Obama spent around nine hours talking to each other and attending events together. These long meetings between the two leaders have helped them build understanding and ward off the confrontation that some U.S. analysts believe is inevitable.